First Test for '06 House Races

Comes today in San Diego's 50th District, formerly occupied by current prison inmate Randy Cunningham. This is a rock-solid Republican district, with roughly twice as many Republicans as Democrats. Yet polls indicate the race is well within the margin of error. It's all down to voter mobilization at this point.

And the Republicans win

Bilbray 49.5%
Busby 45.3%

The difference was likely (a) the Democrats getting outspent 2:1, and (b) Bilbray's blatant appeal to racism (he made building a fence along the Mexican border his issue -- despite the awkward position this puts him in, against the President and McCain).