Illegal immigration

Illegal immigration is so vexing because it is ultimately a conflict between deeply held values: free markets vs. the nation-state.

Good Thought

Let me flesh it out a bit. Part of the reason that no one in Washington was doing anything about immigration during the 90s (on either side of the aisle) was because of NAFTA's passage in 1994. If you were watching the debate about NAFTA back then, this wasa touted as one way to solve the illegal immigration problem since it would raise the standard of living in Mexico.

Of course like much public legislation it had the opposite effect. Since trade and capital were now free flowing accross the border, the free flow of labor is a natural consequence of that policy. In a true free market society people would be free to come accross the border and work. Of course that cuts accross the nativist strain that runs through this country.

Much of the current debate on immigration is silly and unfortantly for the Republican Party . Why? As John Gibson of Fox News recently noted (mediated through the Colbert Report), "More than 50% of the children under 5 are minorities." In other words President Bush's immigration plan so at odds with his party are an effort to save the Republican party from a demographic tidal wave. However the current base of the Republican party won't let them recognize this little fact and they will take the hard line approach their current base wants them to. In the long term this could have the same affect that Prop.187 did to the Republican party in California - completely marginalize them to irrelevance.

Wanna see the future of the Republican Party nationally if the enforcement only immigration package is passed? Just look what happened to the Republicans after the passage of 187 - they lost an entire generation of immigrant children and thus California.

Immigration

I wouldn't give Bush credit for anticipating long-term demographic trends (though maybe Karl has thought of it). There are Republican interests who want liberal immigration laws, namely, businesses that need cheap labor.

The harder problem is that, unfortunately, the nation-state is not withering away anytime soon. So illegal immigration is a problem to the extent that it creates a mostly untaxed population who nonetheless use public funds (in schools, emergency rooms, etc.). The answer is to continue to liberalize immigration.

The funny part of all this is that the protest movements aren't really about immigration -- they are themselves an expression of nativism: Latino nativism. If the US had a land border with China or India, I suspect Latinos would quickly back anti-immigration laws too.

Of course Karl

has thought of it. I don't want to sell Bush short though. He was governer of Texas and often appeared with a mariachi band to singe the national anthem in Spanish. Apparently he was for the national anthem in Spanish before he was against it.

I am fairly certain as governor of Texas he at least gave some thought to appealing to the Hispanic vote, hence the Spanish National Anthem.

The Republican Party (as embodied by the House Republicans) is really on the wrong side of history here and it will show in 15 years.