Applied Epistemology

Obama must win in South Carolina to have any chance at the nomination. If he can't win among a voting pool that is 50% black (hey -- just like himself!), he will be buried in the February 5 primaries, where Clinton's name recognition and familiarity, especially among lower-income, lower-educated voters, and women will overwhelm him. Only a bounce from another victory could derail the Clinton Machine now (and even then it might not be enough). It's basically the kiss of death to be the candidate whose base is college kids and highly-educated, high-income voters (q.v. Gary Hart, Bill Bradley, and of course Mike "the Duke" Dukakis). Obama's window of opportunity against Clinton was that his lofty rhetoric and charisma could sway working stiffs, especially among minorities and women. But it hasn't happened.