| Blogging | Book Store | Christianity | Culture | Hoax | Morality | MSM | Opinion | Politics | Science | Theology | XML Feed |

Home » content

Reality check

The NYT indulges in wishful thinking with an article about "putting the G.O.P. back together":

"[S]ome Republicans were suggesting this White House would be lucky to revive the ambitious legislative agenda Mr. Bush presented 10 months ago, much less achieve the permanent Republican governing coalition."

The Times seems to have forgotten that both houses of the Congress have firm Republican majorities, thus making a revival of Bush's legislative agenda not exactly a matter subject to luck. Social Security and Harriet Miers aside, there's no sign of Congressional splintering.

As for the hypothetical permanent Republican majority, Election Day 2006 is still over a year away. The reality-based community might be advised to look at empirical data in the 2005 races, e.g., the Virginia gubernatorial race. VA went for Bush by about 8% in both 2000 and 2004. The current contest features an undistinguished moderate Democratic lieutenant governor, Tim Kaine, running against an undistinguished conservative Republican former state attorney general, Jerry Kilgore. Virginia's economy is generally good and outgoing Governor Mark Warner is popular, so Kaine is a quasi-incumbent running on a solid record. Yet the race is neck and neck, within the margin of error. Meanwhile, in Democratic-leaning New Jersey, the shoo-in choice for Governor, sitting Senator Jon Corzine, has seen a 20 point lead over his seminarian Republican opponent Doug Forrester dwindle to about 8%.

Whatever the Republican Party's current woes, there's just no firm evidence suggesting that this will translate to electoral defeat. The Democratic Party, like the Tories in the UK, has yet to articulate a popular alternative agenda, despite the weakness of the ruling party.

By Mrooney at 2005-10-30 13:14 | login or register to post comments | 601 reads

Update

Centrist Democrat Tim Kaine won the Virginia gubernatorial election, by a margin of 51% to 47%. But hardly an anti-Republican referendum, since Republican candidates won the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.

By Mrooney at Tue, 2005-11-08 19:57 | login or register to post comments

No Offense

But what does the Lt. Governor do exactly? It's not a very important position. Attorney General? More important but let's face it. Virginia isn't what I would call "Liberal Land." What I find interesting is the margin of victory - I thought it was going to be much closer.

BSD
Comparison Shopping Made Easy | Thalasar Ventures

By AEadmin at Tue, 2005-11-08 20:42 | login or register to post comments

Virginia

Virginia isn't a blue state, true. But it has often elected centrist Democrats governor. Kaine's margin of victory resulted in part from a moderate Republican running as an independent, who siphoned off 2% of the vote. Kilgore, the Republican candidate, ran heavily on "social issues." Kaine responded by emphasizing his Catholic beliefs, and it seems he did a better job of it than Kerry did. In particular, the good news for Democrats is that Kaine beat Kilgore handily in the exurbs, which were key to Bush's victory last year. This result is definitely a resume-builder for Mark Warner's presidential aspirations in '08.

By Mrooney at Wed, 2005-11-09 01:04 | login or register to post comments

Wishful thinking indeed.

A much better assessment is found over at Salon - Deliverance for Democrats. I would really say the Democrats need grab the ethics thing by the horns, even if it hurts a few existing seats in the House. Use the corruption in government to bludgeon the GOP which has controlled all three branches of government.

BSD
Comparison Shopping Made Easy | Thalasar Ventures

By AEadmin at Wed, 2005-11-02 13:19 | login or register to post comments