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A long-term source of conflict

The modern nation-state is strongly wedded to ethnic identity. Indeed, the last century of European history, despite the thorough discrediting of racist ideology in the Second World War, has steadily created new states in the name of ethnic self-determination: in a word, Balkanization. This can be peaceful, as in the separation of the Czechs and Slovaks, but it obviously lends itself to violence as well. The remaining armed conflicts in Europe all involve ethnic or quasi-ethnic demands for statehood: the Basques, the Northern Irish, the former Yugoslavia, the Chechens. Beyond Europe, despite the arbitrary legacy of imperial line-drawing, most notable intrastate conflicts revolve around ethnic drives for statehood: Israel, Rwanda, Sudan, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Tibet, etc. And the fundamental question in Iraq is whether it can survive as one state instead of three.

However, the integration of the world economy demands free trade, mobile workers, liberal immigration, homogeneous legal apparatuses, and cultural homogeneity (at least as far as consumer goods, or answering consumer helplines, goes). So it is plain that the market and the state will generate ethnic conflict for the indefinite future. In its tamer varieties, this conflict will be over "free trade vs. protectionism" (in the US), immigration (in Europe), and general issues of religious and cultural tolerance. Its fiercer manifestations could run from civil war to Islamic terrorism to genocide to Chinese nationalism provoking World War III.

By Mrooney at 2005-10-29 22:02 | login or register to post comments | 577 reads

On this topic

There has been rioting going on in a Paris suburb for the past six days, after the deaths of two Muslim immigrants and the firing of a tear gas canister into a mosque.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/02/AR2005110200492.html

By Mrooney at Wed, 2005-11-02 08:45 | login or register to post comments

Iraq

Well in the context of the Iraq war, this is somewhat unsettling.Why? Cause the Kurds are actively re-settling people to Kirkuk to prepare for a Kurdistan state. Then when they get the chance (ie vote themselves out of Iraq as allowed by the Constition) they will leave Iraq. Of course one wonders what Turkey will do as it has a substantional Kurdish population which they have violently repressed. They may say,"Membership in the EU isn't that important" and invade. Now that's a real show stopper.

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By AEadmin at Mon, 2005-10-31 17:02 | login or register to post comments

Turks v. Kurds

A lot depends on internal Turkish politics. If the secular parties fare badly in elections, or decide that appealing to militarist nationalism is the only way to beat the religious parties, then yes, nasty scenarios such as the one you mention are certainly possible.

By Mrooney at Tue, 2005-11-01 12:48 | login or register to post comments

Turks v. Kurds

Do you think the occupation of Iraq serves to inflame Muslims in Turkey, making them more likely to support Muslem political parties? Or are the two not connected at all?

BSD
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By AEadmin at Wed, 2005-11-02 13:13 | login or register to post comments

Turkey

Turkish politics are a lot more complex than most other nations in the Middle East (i.e., political pluralism is well-established, with multiple political parties and factional groups). The center-right AK Party is currently in power, and is promising many liberal and anti-corruption reforms under Prime Minister Ergodan. In part this is because recent governments have been notoriously corrupt. (E.g., a year or two ago, a major police chief and a mobster were found dead in a car crash -- in the same car. The police deputy, also in the car, survived, but claimed the accident had given him amnesia.) But in larger part, the current drive for reform seems to be motivated by the EU negotiations, which began the formal entry talks a month ago. Some European nations (e.g., Austria) are looking for any excuse to exclude Turkey, so the Ergodan government has been aggressive about reforms -- in fact, he recently pulled a "Nixon in China" by proposing concilatory policies toward the Kurds, admitting Turkish mistreatment, etc. (Lots of people in his own party did not support him on this, and neither did many Kurds.)

Anyway, the Iraq War is understandably unpopular in Turkey, and the government resisted considerable pressure and bribery from Bush beforehand by refusing to allow U.S. use of Turkish airspace. But I suspect some parts of the Turkish military are quietly happy to see Saddam gone, even if that's probably outweighed by the prospects of renewed Kurdish terrorism and separatism. But the Iraq War hasn't had much visible impact on Turkish politics. (Support for Islamist parties never gets very far, since the military and the ruling parties have a penchant for outlawing them!)

By Mrooney at Thu, 2005-11-03 09:54 | login or register to post comments